Economic outlook

According to its economic forecast dated January 2017, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects to see global economic growth of 3.4 percent in 2017 and 3.6 percent in 2018. This faster growth rate will be fueled by the economic upswing in emerging and developing economies as well as in the United States. We continue to expect a stable economic trend in our core markets. The economies in Germany, the United States, and most of the countries of our Europe operating segment are enjoying positive growth rates; even the United Kingdom will see moderate growth if the exit from the European Union proceeds in an orderly fashion. These growth rates will be driven by buoyant private consumer spending and rising investment spending. This positive economic trend will also lead to a moderate recovery in employment markets.

Forecast on the development of GDP and the unemployment rates in our core markets for 2017 and 2018        
 %
  GDP for 2017
compared with 2016
GDP for 2018
compared with 2017
Unemployment rate
in 2017
Unemployment rate
in 2018
Germany 1.4 1.5 6.1 6.2
United States 2.2 2.3 4.7 4.6
Greece 1.3 2.0 22.5 21.6
Romania 3.5 3.3 4.7 4.6
Hungary 2.6 2.7 5.0 4.8
Poland 3.0 3.2 8.2 7.7
Czech Republic 2.5 2.6 5.4 5.4
Croatia 2.5 2.5 13.9 13.5
Netherlands 1.6 1.6 6.9 6.9
Slovakia 3.3 3.1 9.4 9.1
Austria 1.3 1.5 6.0 5.7
United Kingdom 1.2 1.3 5.1 5.2
 
Source: Bloomberg Consensus, Consensus Economics, Oxford Economics; January 2017.